The year is almost over, and I took some time to ponder the last 12 months. Such pondering demands perspective and I decided to check out my 2013 Big Maritime List. Overall, that provided no shocking insights or misjudgments, but some of it is folded into the first three items of this year’s list. Maritime does not exist in a vacuum, so while the perspective is maritime, the findings may not be entirely maritime.
- 1. LNG …….. Methanol?
In 2013 I commented on the very high speed of LNG adoption. I even noted that LNG would be the perfect fuel for the Staten Island ferries. Well promise does not mean adoption. The Staten Island ferries became diesel boats. LNG did get implemented on a number of trades, especially passenger ships and specialty liner trades, but is far from universally accepted. Back then I did stress that LNG is a transitional fuel and suggested better alternatives will arrive. There was some discussion of ammonia and it may still be in the running, but I am betting on methanol as our prime fuel for shipping. Ammonia is nasty stuff. Methanol also may have some safety issues, but it falls squarely in the marine industry’s operating experience.
- 2. Technical and Maritime Training
In 2013 I commented on the need for maritime and technical training, both at the primary and secondary school level, and at the operational level, especially with regard to OPA 90 Non-Tankvessel Salvage Requirements. In 2023 the first new maritime academy school vessel was delivered with more to come. Meanwhile OPA 90 NTSR was very successfully implemented and has operated with relatively few snags for 10 years. However, success can cause its own problems, and if we were to focus on anything in 2024, I would say it relates to true mariner training and what I mean by that is the training of people in the marine industry ashore and aboard ships who are technically skilled, but also have decision making skills that can allow them to rapidly and effectively respond to the demands of the astonishingly rapid changes in our industry.
- 3. Environmental Awareness
In 2013 I noted that it was the first year where for the most part shipboard crews dialed in on environmental responsibility. While we still get occasional calls to investigate environmental crimes, as a whole, it feels like shipboard crews are onboard. What is disturbing is that it looks like a very significant portion of the engineering community still does not get it. Too many engineers still mindlessly follow their outdated carbon central practices and are not completely dialed into sustainable approaches. Sustainability is a technical problem and if the entire engineering community does not get on the bandwagon, the solutions will be slow to come or be sabotaged by those engineer that do not get their head out of the sand.
- 4. The Titan Submersible Failure
This is a case of engineers not getting their head out of the sand. A failure waiting to happen. Let’s all learn from it.
- 5. New Jersey Offshore Wind
We got so close and then it all got weird. First an environmental group started to blame whale deaths on offshore wind. This was a completely fabricated and scurrilous assertion. Then the beach front development lobby and some of the fishermen joined as strange bed follows and then costs increased and the state could not find the political capital to increase agreed rates and then we were back to square one. A very much needed sustainable energy solution set back by another decade due to misinformation and short sightedness.
- 6. Sail Cargo Vessels
Big solutions to big problems often run into big politics, but then there are those inveterate pioneers who are willing to change people’s minds one soul at a time. This is taking place with sail cargo. Sail cargo will not be the sole solution to sustainable maritime transportation, but where it occurs it is visible, easy to understand, and the revival of an ancient, but also brand new, way to look at the world. The world does not change by force, it changes by people falling in love with new ways. Sail is one such path.
- 7. AI
Last night I very much enjoyed watching a 1994 Columbo episode. Columbo was facing a character played by a very creepy William Shattner (with an epically bad mustache) who took advantage of emerging cellphone technology to commit a murder. Columbo solved the murder by engaging the cell phone coverage weaknesses that existed at the time. He even referred to the then current myth that cellphones caused cancer. In 2023 we are at that stage for AI. It is imperfect and mired in myth. It will probably will never be perfect, but it can help and hurt, and we just need to make sure we push it into the right direction.
8. The Asymmetry of Warfare in Ukraine
In 2022 all the warfare in Ukraine was maneuver warfare and Ukraine proved to be much better at it. Ukraine with the help of the West, built up its maneuver warfare capabilities in the hope of regaining their territory. Russia responded with the construction of massive (and relatively cheap) mine fields along the front and Ukraine could not achieve a punch through. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are using cheap drones to decimate the Russian fleet. While the weapons are much more advanced, the similarity to WWII is striking. To win, Ukraine needs to get past those minefields. Airborne? We will see in 2024. Meanwhile the West has only one job: Support Ukraine. This war is existential and we should never forget the Ukrainians are fighting for us all. To tie US support to a US internal squabble about immigration policy is shameful. Immigration is a problem, but on an existential level it barely registers against regimes that live by the sword and global warming. Moreover, war and global warming worsen immigration problems. Fix those first and immigration issues will also get better.
- 9. The Cost of Continuous Political Failure in Israel
The Hamas attack was horrific, but it was an inevitable result of decades and decades of suppressing a problem without committing to a solution. What is the problem? The problem is the displacement of people from their land and the inability to share. Am I talking about the second millenium BCE, 586 BCE, 1935, 1948 or 2023? It makes no difference, the only solution is sharing and that takes faith, and faith can be created with generosity by those with the most power. Those without power have little to give and need to protect what little they have. Don’t blame the suppressed.
10. USA250
Hopefully in 2026, the United States will celebrate its 250th anniversary. True or not, the colonists felt suppressed and decided to develop a new way of working together. It has not been easy, but mostly is has worked out. The preparations for an anniversary party have started. In typical US fashion the preparations have started on wobbly footing. The national anniversary organization is named America250. A name that makes no sense whatsoever. An organization that has the opportunity to pick a correct name, and then decides on a name that is tone deaf and incorrect on so many levels does not provide a lot of confidence in eventual success. There is still time. Meanwhile, the unofficial headliner for the Bicentennial is getting the band back together. Still hoping to be able to join it in style.
Let’s make 2024 the year of the rational fix.
